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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although experts suggest PVV is unlikely of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and established a multi-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, expected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and coalition talks could take several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before taking office.