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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to score runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the build-up has centred around the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: pitches and balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

Should this series be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a victory against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – England should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the game for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the start of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then left out completely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably returning to number three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

For two so evenly-matched teams, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful gamble, appearing out of touch after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then comes Perth, a venue England have played at 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

The Gabba is the venue for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India last year.

Each match at the new venue has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not perform much differently from its traditional red ball.

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