The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Fuels The Villans' Surprising Push for Glory
A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the side's broader struggles.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, the boss ripped off his coat, opened his arms and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to answer. Past precedent, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, while the victories have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG significantly higher than their opponents. For a team that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition managed a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, cannot maintain blasting the football into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital England player.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.